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The ninth academic workshop within the series of events under the topic “Active Ageing Policy and Pension Reforms: Russian and International Experience”

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Event ended

The Institute for Social Policy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics will held the ninth academic workshop devoted to the Economic Aspects of the Long-Term Care System in Russiaorganized in cooperation with the Russian National Association of social service providers (NASO) within the series of events under the topic “Active Ageing Policy and Pension Reforms: Russian and International Experience”on Thursday, November 28, at 10 a.m.


Discussing the development of a long-term care system in the Russian Federation revealed a lack of fundamental assessments of long-term care needs and a lack of a methodological basis for planning related expenditures. The workshop will discuss diverse methods for building long-term forecasts as well as preliminary results of modeling the need for long-term care. Moving towards quantitative modeling will allow to determine more accurately the amount of expenses associated with the provision of care services including the formal sector (budgetary and extrabudgetary or private funding) and informal care (provided by family and relatives) as well as to assess the sufficiency of care infrastructure and the potential investment need to upgrade and develop it.


, Chief Expert, Laboratory for pension system development, Institute for Social Policy, Higher School of Economics

Modeling the Demand in Care and Expenditures to Finance Long-Term Care System (LTC) in Russia under Demographic Forecast

The ability to receive long-term care (LTC) when a person has a limited or complete inability to care for him-/herself is an essential component of the quality of life of older people and people with disabilities. Currently, the provision of such care falls mainly on the shoulders of an extended family whose members either provide care themselves or hire informal carers. Another less common method involves obtaining residential long-term care. At the same time, it is impossible to assess directly the real demand of the Russian population for long-term care based on publicly available data. Hence, it is impossible to assess accurately the extent of unmet demand for long-term care services.

Meanwhile, the need for these services in the coming years and decades will multiply. The primary source of growth in LTC demand in Russia, as in other countries, is the population aging, including an increase in the number of people of the oldest ages. However, an additional factor complicating the functioning of the system is associated with fluctuations in the number of age cohorts under the influence of historically developed demographic waves.

A model to predict the LTC demand in the long run has been developed. This presentation overviews the main capabilities and parameters of the model as well as the results of the modeling. The authors present for discussion estimates of current LTC demand, based on secondary data. Based on the population forecast, the number in the LTC groups was calculated, and a model of financial flows was constructed. According to the results, by 2050, the number of people in need of LTC may increase to 4.7 million people, while the costs of LTC will grow to 0.55-0.77% of GDP, depending on the underlying hypotheses regarding the life expectancy dynamics.


, Head, Laboratory for pension system development, Institute for Social Policy, Higher School of Economics, Chairman of the Board, Russian National Association of social service providers (NASO)

Estimating the Potential Demand for Long-Term Care within the Context of International Comparisons

Professional and academic literature has been already described in detail cost forecasting for long-term care system. This topic is actively used in designing social policies and building social budgets. Available detailed statistics and historical data allow leading countries to forecast long-term care costs up to 2060 providing market participants and decision makers with clear guidelines concerning adequate funding and an appropriate care infrastructure.

Using international comparisons permits to simulate care needs in the Russian Federation. The paper will present the results of modeling the need for care using various comparison techniques and analyze the pros and cons of this approach taking into account the peculiarities of Russia. Examples of modeling care needs and factors leading to increased costs for long term care in developed countries will be given.




Oxana SINYAVSKAYA, Deputy Director, Institute for Social Policy, Higher School of Economics

Discussion participants:


Ramaz AKHMETELI, CEO and the owner of the Company Yellow Cross, President of Russian Red Cross’s Charity foundation, member of Civic Council under the Russian Labor ministry, member of EAN


, Chairman, Historical Russian Imperial Red Cross Society (France)


, Advisor to the Financial Ombudsman of Russia


Venue: Higher School of Economics, Moscow, ul. Myasnitskaya 20, room 311

Date and time: November, 28 2019, 10 a.m. – 1 p.m.

Working language: Russian

The online registration www.hse.ru/expresspolls/poll/317273591.html before 4 pm on Wednesday November 27, 2019 is required.

Media representatives are kindly asked to contact the University press service at press@hse.ru for accreditation to the event.